Halifax Regional Municipality

From: Subject: Halifax Regional Municipality Date: Wed, 3 Mar 2004 10:51:27 -0500 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0000_01C4010D.7A568670"; type="text/html" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1165 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C4010D.7A568670 Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: file://E:\BusDev\Halifax%20RM_full_Jan%2019_04\final\355157f.html Halifax Regional Municipality

Publication date: 19-Jan-2004
Reprinted from = RatingsDirect=20

Halifax=20 Regional = Municipality
Credit=20 Analysts: Stephen Ogilvie, Toronto (1) 416-507-2524; Valerie = E=20 Blair, Toronto (1) 416-507-2536

ISSUER=20 CREDIT RATING
Halifax Regional = Municipality
Issuer=20 Credit Rating
A/Stable/--
Issuer credit rating=20 history:
July 2, 2002
A=20 3D""=20

Rationale

Outlook

Comparative=20 Analysis

Municipal=20 Organization and Budget Composition

Strong=20 Economic Performances Continue

Financial=20 Performance

Liquidity=20 and Debt Burden

3D""=20

Rationale
The rating on = Halifax=20 Regional Municipality, located in the Province of Nova = Scotia,=20 reflects a robust financial performance in fiscal 2003 (year = ended=20 March 31), steady economic growth, a liquidity position that = has=20 strengthened dramatically since fiscal 1999, and a total = municipal=20 debt burden that is moderate by peer comparison. The rating = is=20 constrained by the likelihood of substantial declines in = liquidity=20 in the next three years.=20

Halifax recorded another robust operating performance = during=20 fiscal 2003 with a surplus of 14% of operating revenues. The = fiscal=20 2003 operating surplus became a deficit of 2% of total = revenues=20 after capital spending. Since 1998, operating surpluses have = averaged 13% of operating revenues and have been generally=20 increasing in the period. For the next three years (fiscals=20 2004-2006), Halifax is expected to run similar-sized = operating=20 surpluses, but larger after-capital deficits owing to an = expanded=20 capital program.

The local economy has continued to post good numbers as = labor=20 force results resumed their long-term improving trend. = Employment=20 grew in 2003 from a year earlier and the unemployment rate = fell=20 solidly. As in other Canadian cities, 2003 was a stellar = year for=20 building permits and housing starts in Halifax, boding well = for=20 continued growth in the taxable assessment base.

The city's record for strengthening its liquidity = position in the=20 near term continued as available cash and investment = holdings=20 increased again in fiscal 2003. Halifax has made remarkable = progress=20 since amalgamation in 1996, when it had to rely on its = credit=20 facility for liquidity support. Nevertheless, liquidity = levels will=20 likely fall in the next three years as the city draws on its = reserves to fund a major wastewater treatment project, = Harbour=20 Solutions.

Halifax's total municipal and tax-supported debt burdens = are=20 moderate when compared with those of Canadian and = international=20 peers, and have been decreasing since fiscal 2000. Total = municipal=20 debt represented about 70% of 2003 operating revenues at the = end of=20 fiscal 2003 and should drop to 66% of operating revenues by = the end=20 of the current year. For fiscals 2005 and 2006, further = slight=20 declines are forecast for total municipal debt, which is = expected to=20 reach 60% of operating revenues by the end of fiscal 2006. = The=20 projections, however, do not include any issuance for = Harbour=20 Solutions, and though the project will require new issuance, = the=20 servicing of this borrowing will be self-supporting, covered = by a=20 dedicated levy on water usage.

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Outlook
The stable = outlook=20 reflects the expectation that Halifax's total municipal debt = will=20 decline modestly in the current and subsequent years as new = issuance=20 is scaled back, and that liquidity will decline quite = substantially=20 in fiscals 2005 and 2006 as reserves are drawn down for the = Harbour=20 Solutions implementation. In addition, Standard & Poor's = Ratings=20 Services expects that the economy will maintain its trend of = solid=20 expansion, leading to continued taxable assessment base = growth.=20

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Comparative=20 Analysis
The Halifax = economy=20 compares well relative to its domestic and international = peers. The=20 manufacturing sector does not play as important a role in = the=20 Halifax economy as it does in that of most of the city's = similarly=20 sized international peers (such as Brno, Lausanne, and = Malaga). The=20 public sector is slightly more important to Halifax than is = the case=20 with most of the city's Canadian peers, such as Laval, Que., = Kingston, Ont., Thunder Bay, Ont., or Brandon, Man. The = Halifax area=20 labor market has been stronger: unemployment rates for the = Halifax=20 area in the past few years have been at the low end of the=20 comparator range. As well, Halifax is unique in its exposure = to the=20 developing offshore oil and gas sector.=20

Halifax benefits from an above-average level of financial = flexibility relative to its domestic and international = peers.=20 Transfers (as a percentage of operating revenues) have been = less=20 important than they are to almost all of the city's = comparator=20 group. Furthermore, long-term expenditure growth has been = more=20 manageable for Halifax than has been the case for most its = peers.=20 The city's budgetary performances have also been noteworthy: = Halifax=20 has outperformed almost all of its comparators handily on an = operating basis, but not on an after-capital basis, where = its record=20 lies in the middle of its peer group.

Halifax's debt burden (as measured by total municipal = debt to=20 operating revenues) can be placed in the middle of a peer = range that=20 is very broad. The same holds true for the burden of = interest=20 payments and total debt service costs, where Halifax is = again in the=20 middle of a very broad range.

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Halifax is a = single-tier=20 local government that is responsible for public works = (roads,=20 waterworks, sanitary sewers, and solid waste management), = police and=20 fire services, transit and ferries, libraries, parks, = cultural and=20 recreational facilities, and urban planning and development. =

The city's noteworthy sources of operating revenues in = 2003 were=20 property taxes (83%), water and sewer charges (7%), and = grants (1%).=20 Its primary operating expenditures were public works = including=20 transit (43%), police and fire services (24%), and community = services (8%).

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Strong=20 Economic Performances = Continue
Halifax, = which is=20 situated on Canada's Atlantic coastline, has a population of = approximately 365,000. The city is the capital of Nova = Scotia, the=20 most populous of the four Atlantic provinces, and is the = financial,=20 socio-economic, and cultural center of all of Atlantic = Canada. The=20 city is a very important part of the provincial economy: the = output=20 of the greater Halifax area represents about half of the = province's=20 output, and Halifax was home to 38% of the province's = population at=20 the end of 2001, up from 37% in 1998.=20

Employment is dominated by the service-producing sector. = The=20 tertiary sector has been the dominant employment source (86% = of=20 total employment in 2001), led by the public sector = (healthcare,=20 education, and public administration) at 31%, commercial = services=20 (20%), and retail trade (12%). Secondary industries, = construction=20 and manufacturing in particular, are significantly less = important,=20 contributing approximately 13% of the total. Primary = industries such=20 as mining, agriculture, and forestry, made almost no = contribution to=20 employment in the city (slightly more than 1% of total = employment in=20 2001).

Halifax has a strong institutional employment base that = includes=20 universities and colleges, hospitals and regional health = centers,=20 school boards, provincial ministries and institutions, and=20 significant federal and local government operations. The top = five=20 employers are: Queen Elizabeth II Health Sciences Centre,=20 Aliant/Maritime Telephone & Telegraph Co. Ltd., = Dalhousie=20 University, IWK/Grace Health Centre, and Nova Scotia Power = Inc.

The city possesses one of the finest harbors in world and = is one=20 of the top three ports in the country in terms of traffic. = As one of=20 Canada's chief ports of entry, the port handles a large = amount of=20 container traffic and has a large intermodal (rail, ship, = and road)=20 transfer facility as well.

Labor force trends continue to be favorable. The = unemployment=20 rate should decline in 2003 to about 7% after two = consecutive=20 increases in 2002 (7.6%) and 2001 (6.9%). Halifax's = unemployment=20 rate has fallen in the long term: it stood at 9% in 1997.=20 Nevertheless, the local unemployment rate moved above the = national=20 rate in 2002 for the first time in a number of years. The = local rate=20 is expected to surpass the national rate again this year. = Long-term=20 declines in the local unemployment rate have been matched by = long-term employment gains, which have averaged more than 2% = per=20 year from 1998 to 2002.

Table 1 Halifax=20 Regional Municipality Economic Statistics =

--Year ended Dec. 31-- =

(% change) 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998

Population 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.3 1.0

Employment (0.1) 0.4 4.9 1.8 4.3

Unemployment rate (%) 7.6 6.9 6.2 6.7 7.2

Building=20 permit values 25.3 (16.8) 40.4 30.8 N/A

Taxable=20 assessment base* 6.6 7.6 5.8 1.6 N/A

*Values after 1999 include increases in = market value.=20 N/A--Not applicable.

Construction and offshore = natural gas=20 projects boost economy.
The construction = sector=20 continues to perform extremely well, pointing to continued = strong=20 taxable assessment growth for 2003. Building permit values = and=20 housing starts both achieved record levels in 2002, jumping = 25% and=20 49%, respectively, from the previous year's values.=20

The local economy has been bolstered in recent years by = the=20 discovery and development of offshore natural gas fields. = Even=20 though gas royalties go to the province and the majority of = the=20 production-related employment is well outside of the city, = the city=20 has benefited as some of the management and administration = of the=20 development projects have located in Halifax. Recent test = results in=20 the Panuke natural gas field bode well for continued = offshore=20 exploration and development efforts in the long term and, by = extension, for the city.

Long-term population growth has been solid. The recently = released=20 2001 census results show that Halifax's population grew at = an=20 average annual rate of 0.9% from 1996 to 2001. With a robust = labor=20 market and the lure of big-city amenities, migrants from = rural Nova=20 Scotia and other parts of Atlantic Canada should continue to = relocate to the city and maintain population growth rates at = or=20 above historic values.

The taxable assessment base has shown strong overall = growth in=20 the past few years. Annual unit growth in 2002 was estimated = to be=20 about 3%. Assessment base growth in 2003 will likely = moderate from=20 the strong showing in 2002.

Looking ahead, the pace of economic growth should remain = close to=20 current levels through 2003 and 2004 as the U.S. economy = picks up=20 momentum. Ongoing natural gas exploration, urban = development, and=20 population growth should keep the city's economic prospects = strong=20 and drive further taxable assessment and employment growth. =

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Financial = Performance=20
Halifax has = produced=20 robust financial performances in recent years. For the 2003 = fiscal,=20 the city produced an operating surplus of 14% of operating = revenues,=20 in line with its performances in the three previous years. = After=20 capital spending, the city turned in an overall deficit of = 2% of=20 total revenues. The record in previous years is quite mixed, = with=20 the city recording both solid overall surpluses and = deficits,=20 depending on shifts from year to year in the size of the = annual=20 capital program.=20

For the current fiscal year (2004) and next, Halifax will = be=20 pressured by the ongoing clean-up costs of Hurricane Juan, = but is=20 expected to produce an operating surplus that is lower, = although in=20 line with recent results.

Operating revenues have increased solidly in the long = term,=20 rising about 4% per year on average from 1998 to 2003. = Strong=20 long-term gains in property tax revenues are the predominant = cause=20 for the solid upward trend in operating revenues. Rising = user fee=20 revenues have also contributed to operating revenue = increases.=20 Growth in Halifax's other revenue sources has been = relatively flat,=20 notably in grants and subsidies from the provincial = government,=20 which has not been particularly supportive of the city, as = is the=20 case with many of Halifax's peers. In the medium term, = Standard=20 & Poor's expects that operating revenues will continue = to expand=20 at about the same long-term rate, driven by solid gains in = the=20 taxable assessment base.

Operating expenditures have grown in the long term at a=20 significantly lower pace than have operating revenues: from = 1998 to=20 2003, operating spending increased at an average annual rate = less=20 than 2%. From fiscal 2002 to 2003, operating expenditures = rose=20 approximately 6%. Cost pressures have been broadly based, = with no=20 specific department recording extraordinary spending = increases.

In late September of this year, Hurricane Juan struck = Atlantic=20 Canada and Halifax suffered a substantial amount of damage = as a=20 result of very high winds. The most current estimate of the = cost to=20 the city of the clean-up is C$24 million, an amount that = will not=20 threaten Halifax's financial strength. The city is seeking = federal=20 and provincial aid to assist in managing these costs.

Table 2 Halifax=20 Regional Municipality Financial Statistics =

--Year ended Dec. 31-- =

(%) 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999

Operating=20 balance/operating revenue 13.9 14.3 14.0 12.9 8.4

Operating=20 revenue (% change) 5.2 5.4 5.6 0.5 4.3

Operating=20 expenditure (% change) 5.6 5.1 4.2 (4.5) (1.8)

Total=20 municipal debt/operating revenue 71.4 75.9 82.2 88.9 85.3

Net=20 tax-supported debt/operating revenue 52.9 56.7 62.3 67.8 62.5

Interest=20 expense/operating revenue 3.4 3.8 5.6 6.2 N.A.

N.A.--Not available. =

Harbour Solutions project = already=20 underway.
Capital expenditures have not = been=20 onerous in the long term (1998 to 2003) and represented 17% = of total=20 expenditures annually during the period. Capital spending = will=20 increase dramatically in the next two years as the Harbour = Solutions=20 project gets into full swing. Dominant capital spending = priorities=20 for the current, 2005, and 2006 fiscals include civic = buildings,=20 roads, transit, and Harbour Solutions. Capital budgets are = expected=20 to return to more historic values once the project is = completed.=20

Harbour Solutions is a multiyear program that will = dramatically=20 enhance the city's sewer network and wastewater treatment=20 capabilities and significantly improve the water quality in = Halifax=20 Harbour. Total cost of the Harbour Solutions project is = estimated to=20 be C$333 million, of which Halifax's share is expected to be = C$273=20 million. The remaining project costs will be borne by Nova = Scotia=20 and the federal government. The majority of project spending = is=20 anticipated to occur in fiscals 2005 and 2006: to date, = about C$20=20 million of project work has been undertaken. With the fairly = recent=20 withdrawal of the project bid-winning consortium, Halifax = will=20 proceed with the project but without a private-sector = partner.

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Liquidity and = Debt=20 Burden
Halifax's = holdings of=20 cash and investments have improved dramatically since the = city was=20 amalgamated in 1996. In fiscal 2003, cash and investment = holdings=20 reached very close to C$100 million, or 22% of 2003 = operating=20 revenues. A substantial portion of the rise in liquidity is = due to=20 an increase in a sewer surcharge collected through the water = ratebase to help fund the capital cost of the Harbour = Solutions=20 project. It is expected that cash and investment holdings = will=20 decline substantially in fiscals 2005 and 2006 as the water=20 pollution reserve is drawn down to help fund the project=20 implementation.=20

Halifax's total municipal debt burden (including capital = leases=20 and the debt of the Halifax Regional Water Commission) has = been=20 declining moderately since fiscal 2000 after a substantial = rise=20 post-amalgamation. At the end of March 2003, total municipal = debt=20 stood at C$323 million, or 71% of operating revenues. Total=20 municipal debt has trended down since 2000 when it stood at = C$343=20 million, or almost 90% of that year's operating revenues. =

A relatively small amount of the city's total municipal = debt,=20 approximately 21%, is self-supported and has been issued to = fund=20 potable water infrastructure. The self-supported portion of = total=20 municipal debt has been very stable and is virtually = unchanged since=20 1998.

Debt projections for=20 2004-2006.
Net debt (total municipal debt = less=20 available cash and investment holdings) stood at C$224 = million at=20 the end of fiscal 2003 or 53% of operating revenues. As the = city has=20 strengthened its cash and investment holdings since fiscal = 1999, net=20 debt has fallen dramatically, declining 33% from the end of = fiscal=20 1999 through to 2003.=20

Total municipal debt will trend down again in the current = year,=20 reaching about 66% of operating revenues by the end of March = 2004.=20 The trend should continue in fiscal 2005 and 2006 despite an = expansion in the city's capital program. Total municipal = debt should=20 decline to about 62% by the end of fiscal 2005 and 60% by = the end of=20 fiscal 2006.The debt projections, however, do not include = any=20 issuance for Harbour Solutions and additional borrowing will = required to complete the project.

Conversely, net debt will improve again in fiscal 2004, = falling=20 to about 40% of operating revenues by the end of the current = year,=20 but will increase sharply in fiscals 2005 and 2006 as the = city draws=20 on its pollution control reserve to fund the Harbour = Solutions=20 project.

The 2003 fiscal financial statements indicate that the = city's=20 pension plan is in surplus with the last actuarial valuation = being=20 Jan. 1, 2003. The statements do not disclose any material = unfunded=20 obligations.

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This=20 report was reproduced from Standard & Poor's=20 RatingsDirect, the premier source of real-time, = Web-based=20 credit ratings and research from an organization that = has been=20 a leader in objective credit analysis for more than = 140 years.=20 To preview this dynamic on-line product, visit our=20 RatingsDirect Web site at=20 = www.standardandpoors.com/ratingsdirect.

Published by=20 Standard & Poor's, a Division of The McGraw-Hill = Companies, Inc.=20 Executive offices: 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY = 10020.=20 Editorial offices: 55 Water Street, New York, NY 10041. = Subscriber=20 services: (1) 212-438-7280. Copyright 2003 by The = McGraw-Hill=20 Companies, Inc. Reproduction in whole or in part prohibited = except=20 by permission. All rights reserved. Information has been = obtained by=20 Standard & Poor's from sources believed to be reliable. = However,=20 because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by = our=20 sources, Standard & Poor's or others, Standard & = Poor's does=20 not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of any = information and is not responsible for any errors or = omissions or=20 the result obtained from the use of such information. = Ratings are=20 statements of opinion, not statements of fact or = recommendations to=20 buy, hold, or sell any securities.

=20

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