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A model was developed to assist in projecting modal shift in automobile traffic (primarily single occupancy vehicles) to bicycle use to the year 2008. From this, estimates of air quality improvement based on modal shift and new trips are provided.

Three scenarios were developed (using automobile, pedestrian and pedestrian with bicycle counts for the Angus L. Macdonald Bridge^[1]. Estimates of emission reductions to the year 2008 were based on an average trip of 6.3 km., the average cyclist commute in Halifax. Emission reductions (In grams) assume diversion of single occupant automobile traffic to bicycles. The scenarios suggest that if automobile traffic on the Angus L. Macdonald Bridge was reduced between 0.1%/yr. to 0.4%/yr. each year until 2008, the resulting reduction in emissions would range between 0.9% and 3.6%.

Projected cycle trips/ Emission reductions	Annual Trips	SO (grams)	NO (grams)	VOC (grams)	CO (grams)
Four year Average (1994-1997)	11707993	5464	50840	600553	74712432
Scenario 1: Estimated auto to cycle trip diversions to 2008 (0.1%/yr)	105794	49	459	5427	675103
Percentage decrease from four year average to 2008	0.90%	0.90%	0.90%	0.90%	0.90%
Scenario 2: Estimated auto to cycle trip diversions to 2008 (0.2%/yr)	212438	99	922	10897	1355633
Percentage decrease from four year average to 2008	1.81%	1.81%	1.81%	1.81%	1.81%
Scenario 3: Estimated auto to cycle trip diversions to 2008 (0.4%/yr)	428295	200	1860	21989	2733086
Percentage decrease from four year average to 2008	3.66%	3.66%	3.66%	3.66%	3.66%

[1] Provided by the Halifax Dartmouth Bridge Commission. ""